Orwell Award Announcement SusanOhanian.Org Home


Study Predicts 95 Percent of Great Lakes Schools Will Be Labeled 'Failing' by 2014

Susan Notes: The question isn't will schools fail, it's when will they fail. Without
increased flexibility in the AYP requirements and a focus on the underlying
reasons why students do not perform well on such tests, we will continue to
invest huge amounts of time and money in a system where failure is
guaranteed.



Press Release

Contact: Teri Moblo (517) 203-2940 (email) tmoblo@mea.org or
Alex Molnar (480) 965-1886 (email) epsl@asu.edu

TEMPE, Ariz. (Wednesday, September 14, 2005) - Fewer schools in the Great
Lakes region were labeled "failing" this year. That will change, however,
if the federal No Child left Behind Act of 2001 (NCLB) continues to be the
driving force behind the measurement of school and student success. Most
schools in the region will labeled "failing" by 2014, according to "The
Impact of the Adequate Yearly Progress Requirement of the Federal No Child
Left Behind Act on the Great Lakes Region," a study released by the Great
Lakes Center for Educational Research and the Education Policy Studies
Laboratory at Arizona State University.

The study is the first multi-state research to use actual state data to
predict how schools will fair under No Child Left Behind current Adequate
Yearly Progress (AYP) requirements. The authors, Edward C. Wiley,
University of Colorado-Boulder; William J. Mathis, University of Vermont;
and David R. Garcia, Arizona State University, assessed how much gain
schools made in 2003-2004 and used these data along with each state's
established growth expectations to predict how many schools will meet the
federal requirement of 100 percent proficiency on state high-stakes tests by
2014.

Regardless of the growth expectations set by the Great Lakes states, the
research findings are clear: Approximately 95 percent of the schools in the
Great Lakes region will be labeled "failing" by 2014. The state-by-state
predictions are:

Indiana: Under the best case scenario, it is projected that 54 percent of
schools will fail by 2014. Under a more realistic scenario, 80 to 85
percent of schools will fail.

Wisconsin: Under the best case scenario in, it is projected that over half
of the schools will fail by 2014. Under a more realistic scenario, 84
percent of schools will fail.

Ohio: Under the best case scenario, it is projected that almost half of the
schools will fail by 2014. Under a more realistic scenario, close to 80
percent of schools will fail.

Minnesota: It is projected that 85 percent of schools will fail by 2014.

Michigan: Under the best case scenario, it is projected that half of the
schools will fail by 2014. Under a more realistic scenario, almost every
school will fail.

Illinois: Under the most optimistic scenario, it is projected that over 65
percent of schools will fail by 2014. Under a more realistic scenario, that
number is closer to 85 percent.

"It's fail now or fail later," said Teri Moblo, Director of the Great Lakes
Center for Education Research and Practice. "Under the current system,
schools are destined to be labeled as failing and there is no way around it.
The question isn't will schools fail, it's when will they fail. Without
increased flexibility in the AYP requirements and a focus on the underlying
reasons why students do not perform well on such tests, we will continue to
invest huge amounts of time and money in a system where failure is
guaranteed."

The authors point out that AYP measures the success or failure of schools
and students solely on high stakes test scores in basic academic areas.
They point out that the special needs and learning styles of students are
not taken into account; that the impact of poverty and diversity on a
school's ability to achieve AYP is not addressed; that testing and sanctions
for not making AYP do not address the underlying causes of poor test
performance; and that in order to meet yearly AYP goals, states are forced
to direct their increasingly limited resources toward the administering and
scoring of standardized tests, estimated to cost between $1.9 billion and
$5.3 billion for 2002-08.

The study goes on to recommend ways to increase student learning and improve
AYP results:

* Develop programs that include families, community, and health providers,
and that strengthen childcare, early education, summer and after-school
activities, and technical education, among other vital and essential
services.

* Dedicate adequate funding for remediation and social infrastructure, to
overcome disparities and meet student educational needs.

* Create realistic, comprehensive school evaluation systems that involve a
variety of evaluation methods.

* Set realistic standards linked to external expectations and grounded in
research.

* Use aggressive confidence intervals and subgroup sizes to measure rates of
growth.

* Modify the standards and growth expectations for special education,
non-English speaking, and migratory students.



— Edward C. Wiley, William J. Mathis, & David R. Garcia


http://www.asu.edu/educ/epsl/EPRU/documents/EPSL-0509-109-EPRU.pdf


INDEX OF RESEARCH THAT COUNTS


FAIR USE NOTICE
This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of education issues vital to a democracy. We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. For more information click here. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.